These issues should be less problematic for practice activities meeting the criteria for deliberate practice in domains with an established curriculum that prescribes a particular progression of mastery. In these domains a teacher will guide the student to engage in deliberate practice during the entire development. In the previous sections we have discussed how studies collecting data on diverse types of performance measures and practice activities were included in Macnamara et al.
In this section we will attempt to specify explicit criteria for a subset of effect sizes included in their meta-analysis that can be included in a meta-analysis of the relation between accumulated purposeful and deliberate practice and the attainment of reproducibly superior performance in a domain of expertise.
In our review we will be very conservative, and some of these effects could potentially have met our criteria if the investigators had included more information and reported information about different practice activities.
First, the measures of performance used by studies included in the Macnamara et al. Figure 3. Flow diagram of applying revised inclusionary criteria to estimates of the effects of deliberate practice on performance considered by Macnamara et al. In an earlier section we discussed the problems with most of the studies on education included in Macnamara et al. These measures are not acceptable as measures of reproducible performance in a recognized domain of expertise. When teachers assign grades in a course the grades are nearly always subjective judgments rather than an objective measurement of performance.
For example, Hendry and Memmert et al. More generally, it is not clear how one can assess the reliability and, in particular, validity of those ratings of a given individual or even a group of individuals. It is possible and even likely that different coaches with similar, yet independent, knowledge of players would have given different ratings. The problem of comparisons is particularly salient if we want to compare performance across historical time, such as the present time versus years ago, or across different countries, such as China and Sweden.
Ratings are based on relative judgments of abilities and performance whereas other domains of expertise rely on measurements of absolute objective performance, such as time to run m, number of strokes to complete a golf course, and the results of tournaments Ericsson, In that case there is a very close relation between the level of competition a relative measure of performance and the average performance of participants at the same level.
In those cases, it is less clear how differences between individual athletes in teams competing at different levels correspond to differences in absolute performance, which may depend on individual differences among players on the same team, such as the playing position within a team. In our meta-analysis we will examine the potential effects of the distinction between relative and absolute performance by including it as a moderator.
Some of the studies included in in Macnamara et al. This is a case where the authors of that study could have been able to report evidence on reproducibility of the superior performance of the Greek team across many competitions in a season, but they did not. Our review assessed whether all studies and their associated effect sizes in Macnamara et al.
According to the deliberate practice framework, goals for a desired level of performance should drive the design of training and practice to help trainees to reach that performance. Studies of practice within the expert-performance approach would therefore meet Criterion 2 and measure duration of practice activities that are motivated by and designed to attain a higher level of the targeted performance see Criterion 1. This requirement would seem obvious based on the large body of evidence on the specificity of training effects Reilly et al.
Consequently, researchers have collected data on music-related tests involving sight reading, where a musician is asked to play an unfamiliar piece of music without opportunity to practice it. Sight reading is a very important activity for professional accompanists, but most music training focuses on helping musicians study a piece of music and then often memorize it.
When ready, the musician would perform the piece of music with an orchestra for a large public audience. Consequently, we will exclude effect sizes from studies relating amount of deliberate practice to performance on laboratory tasks, like sight reading tests, that do not explicitly capture the skilled performance that the individuals are training to attain.
There are several other studies included in the meta-analysis where the accumulated practice estimates have been related to available performance variables without first demonstrating that the practice was directed toward improving each of those particular performance variables. For example, the accumulated practice estimates for the soccer referees in a study by Catteeuw et al.
These researchers explicitly remarked that the hours of practice mostly were not relevant to improve skills related to accurate calls during games and tested scenarios. In our review we examined all effects included in Macnamara et al. A common type of practice activity in many domains involves training in a group, often led by a teacher or coach. Based on the definition of deliberate practice we argue that the effectiveness of such group training would be inferior to a situation where the individual engages in solitary practice recommended by a coach or teacher deliberate practice or engages in solitary practice to attain a particular improvement determined by the individuals themselves purposeful practice.
In the solitary versions of the practice, the individual would be in full control of what to practice and for how long to engage in a particular practice activity.
All effect sizes included in Macnamara et al. Nearly all effect sizes that were excluded relied on estimates of team practice or practice with groups of other individuals.
For example, one of the included effect sizes referred to the study of Duffy et al. Several other effect sizes were excluded because they included the time spent in team practice, such as a study of bowlers Harris, , of middle distance runners Young et al. The criterion was applied in a conservative manner so if the study did not request or report a separate estimate for solitary practice it was excluded.
The general argument is that different practice activities might have differential effects, and in our review we are trying to assess the relation between the attained reproducibly superior performance and the accumulated duration of deliberate and solitary purposeful practice.
Our reanalysis of Macnamara et al. The second duplication concerned the data from Study 2 in Ericsson et al. When essentially the same data was reported for Study 1 in Krampe and Ericsson , it was reported as the th highest 3rd from bottom for the experts and th highest 28th from bottom for the novices. These three duplicate effect sizes were excluded from further analysis. We then applied the first, second, and third criteria for inclusion sequentially and report the number of effect sizes that met that criterion in Figure 3.
Once the set of effect sizes had been identified as meeting all three criteria, we coded these effect sizes for two dichotomous moderator variables. The first represented objective versus relative measurement of performance, based upon whether performance estimates were derived from objective measurements or membership in groups of differing skill levels. The second moderator variable denoted whether the solitary practice estimates represented deliberate practice, where time was spent engaging in individualized practice activities according to the instruction of a coach or teacher or purposeful practice, and where the individuals were not guided by a coach.
More detailed information regarding the procedure for study selection and moderator coding can be found in Supplementary Text S1 , and a list of the selected studies and their effect sizes can be seen in Figure 4.
It is worth noting that in their original analyses Macnamara et al. Sample-weighted means were calculated using the Comprehensive Meta Analysis software Version 3. Figure 4. Correlations between purposeful or deliberate practice and performance.
The marker at the bottom shows the weighted mean correlation. Study naming conventions were kept consistent with those used by Macnamara et al. We used the Comprehensive Meta Analysis software to compute the random-effects weighted average of the selected effects. This suggested that the positive relationship between practice and performance was not dependent upon whether performance was evaluated through group membership or objective measurement.
Future research with independent training groups will be needed to precisely quantify the differences and test their significance statistically. In this paper we have reviewed the evidence questioning the assumption that a single sum of the accumulated hours of practice is a theoretically valid predictor that would be able to account for the majority of individual differences in attained performance in a domain.
Both Hambrick et al. The reliability of the performance measure was discussed by Hambrick et al. Glickman and Jones hypothesized that the difference was due to the typical players being less involved in tournaments and chess activities. There are surprisingly few estimates of the reliability of performance measures for the samples used in studies of expert performance.
For example, cross-country skiing had an ICC for within-season practice of 0. Clark et al. The reliability of performance seems to be higher for the most skilled performers in these diverse domains, but it is clear that it is well below one. Based on the available information we suggest that a reliability of 0.
Following Hambrick et al. All of the samples of individuals analyzed in the meta-analyses relating accumulated practice and attained performance only examine data from individuals who exhibit an acceptable level of skill. For example, even amateur players need to have played a lot of chess before they have engaged in a sufficient number of chess tournaments to be given a personalized chess rating.
When samples are selected in a manner that is correlated with variables studied — namely, a minimal level of attained skill — then investigators correct for the restriction of range, which estimates substantially larger correlations for the entire population Schmidt et al. Unfortunately, none of the studies of only elite samples analyzed by Macnamara et al. As discussed earlier in this paper, nobody has argued that any single hour of practice has an equivalent effect on improving performance.
Consequently, we would not expect that completely error-free measures of accumulated practice and performance for the entire population of individuals would be perfectly correlated. In an earlier section we showed that the duration of effective training is not related to hours of engagement in practice activities for developing the strength and endurance of expert athletes, but the critical aspect of training is the intensity of the practice Mujika, Similarly, we reported evidence that some students can engage in solitary practice without improvements in performance McPherson and Renwick, , and that strategies for improving performance increase in complexity as the attained level of performance is higher Hallam et al.
Only future research documenting the detailed history of practice and associated improvements of performance and mediating mechanisms will lead to significant advances of our understanding of the potential limiting factors of individual differences in innate ability that constrain the development of superior performance in a domain.
An attempt to measure upper limits of improvability through practice will never be established by correlating a single measure of hours of accumulated practice with attained performance.
It is therefore important to pursue an alternative approach which would involve identifying those anatomical and physiological characteristics that cannot be changed by practice, diet, or other environmentally controllable factors. In the original paper, Ericsson et al.
For example, this paper mentioned that research on the development of height and body size differences concerning the length of bones indicate that they are determined by genetic factors.
Even more importantly, this paper reviewed evidence proposing it is possible to dramatically change most anatomical and physiological attributes by engaging in particular types of practice, in contrast to the genetically determined height and body size. Most of the scientific knowledge about the degree of influence of genetic factors has been based on studies of twins and the degree to which identical twins are more similar than fraternal twins in a wide range of attributes.
The most cited measure of genetic influence is heritability, namely the percentage of variance in individual differences of some measured performance or characteristic that can be accounted for by genetic factors by comparing individuals with differences in the degree of genetic similarity, such as twins and family members. This implies that we should not assume that heritability estimates for various measures of physical performance of individuals who lead mostly sedentary lives with engagement in mostly recreational physical activities are valid heritability estimates for expert performers, who have engaged in extensive training for years and even decades.
In fact, Plomin et al. These considerations imply that we should not use heritability estimates derived from novices or amateurs in a domain to reflect the corresponding heritability estimates for individuals who have an extensive training history and perform at a very high level.
There is a large body of twin research that has assessed heritability of scores on tests measuring characteristics believed to be important for success in sports, such as physical fitness, fast-twitch and slow-twitch muscle characteristics, and degree of body fat.
These heritability estimates suggest a substantial influence of genes, which has led some researchers MacArthur and North, to propose that inherited genes will be the most important factor for predicting elite status of athletes.
Genome-Wide Association GWA studies have analyzed all this information to search for those particular genes that are associated with a particular superior performance. A recent general review concluded that the genes identified with GWA studies accounted only for a minor fraction of variance predicted by the twin studies Eynon et al. So far there appears to be no single gene that accounts for even a few percent of the variance in any of the athletic characteristics Moran and Pitsiladis, Even when GWA studies have searched for unique genes in very popular sporting events, such as endurance running, not even a single gene was found to consistently predict significant differences between world-class runners and sedentary adults Rankinen et al.
There are many possible explanations for this discrepancy Georgiades et al. Most twin studies have collected data on twins who led normal lives and thus had not engaged in intense training necessary to attain elite performance levels.
This observation has raised issues about the generalizability of heritability estimates based on the original twin studies Ericsson, ; Georgiades et al. One interesting approach to distinguish these influences is to search for identical twins where one member of the pair has been engaged in physical activity and the other has been sedentary. Leskinen et al. In a recent case study, Bathgate et al. The two twins had comparable life styles until age 20, but their lives diverged for the subsequent 30 years.
If the track-coach twin had engaged in training typical of elite athletes during childhood and adolescence it is likely that the differences between the two twins would have been even larger. In a large sample of twins, Eriksson et al. Eriksson et al. It has been assumed that superior cognitive ability would be associated with superior performance in domains of expertise across the entire period of development of expert performance.
In a review, one of us Ericsson, showed, however, that the performance of beginners in a domain of expertise correlates with scores on tests of general cognitive ability, whereas the performance of skilled individuals in the same domain correlates with such test scores at a dramatically reduced level and often cannot be distinguished from chance.
They cited a significant correlation between amount of deliberate practice for traditional music performance and performance on a test of working memory and sight-reading performance Meinz and Hambrick, Consistent with our earlier described criteria for examining only performance that captures the goal of the music training, we will not discuss this finding further.
More importantly, they also cited a significant correlation between intelligence and chess ratings Grabner et al. However, in a more recent meta-analysis of the correlation between cognitive-ability tests and chess performance, Burgoyne et al. There is an accumulating body of evidence for a gradual disappearance of correlations between performance on cognitive ability tests and domain-specific performance as domain-specific mechanisms are acquired and then mediate the superior expert performance.
Some recent studies have analyzed large samples of identical and fraternal twins to assess the heritability of attained performance in domains of music. Hambrick and Tucker-Drob examined data on twins among high-school students and found that having engaged in some type of public music event, such as at a minimum receiving a good evaluation at a music competition at the school level, was significantly heritable.
When we reanalyzed this data set while defining the music achievement matching the students at the music academy in West Berlin Ericsson et al. In another very large sample of over 10, twins, Mosing et al. Mosing et al. Consistent with the possibility that heritability estimates would not be significantly different from zero when success in the music world was defined as becoming a successful professional musician, the number of musicians that had reached a professional level was reported to be very small Ericsson, Now 5 years later, and after many repeated requests for such an analysis there has been no such reporting on the professional musicians in their sample.
This group of researchers has published several papers on twins where only one identical twin in a pair is playing music but they limited these analyses to the amateur musicians in their sample Eriksson et al. More generally, Ericsson reviewed the information of the elite achievement of twin pairs or individual twins of either identical or fraternal type.
The review uncovered very few cases, in fact a much smaller number than would be expected by chance based on the proportion of twins in the general population. It is therefore unlikely that studies of identical and fraternal twins will ever provide us with information relevant to estimating the heritability of attaining expert performance.
The expert-performance framework and the proposals by Hambrick et al. All of them agree that extended practice is necessary to attain expert performance and that genes in the DNA are expressed in response to practice activities, and these genes play a central role mediating the biological changes of body and nervous system.
All frameworks also agree that unique genes generate individual differences that are important predictors of successful performance in some domains, such as height in many sports, and that future research in genetics might identify unique genes related to success in various domains of expertise.
Our disagreement with Macnamara et al. Only future empirical research will allow us to describe and measure these limits and then assess whether these potential limits will practically constrain some individuals from attaining expert performance in particular domains. There are suggestions that future research will be better integrated and combine the two types of traditionally unrelated studies.
The first type of traditional research consists of studies analyzing only the GWA of genes to superior performance. The second type focuses on analyzing cognitive mechanisms and detailed analysis of engagement in practice activities and the changes in performance resulting from engagement in these practice activities.
Over the last few years geneticists Georgiades et al. In the future it should be possible to analyze the individual differences in attained absolute performance in a particular domain with regression analysis, where variables include the presence of unique genes, the engagement in particular practice activities, as well as the possible interaction between genetic and practice variables. I show that storytelling serves as a legitimate mode of argumentation.
I develop an account of In the recent literature in the philosophy of science there is much discussion of scientific knowledge, but rarely an explicit account of such knowledge. Employing the Pyrrhonist skeptics modes, I examine the implicit This dissertation investigates and supports arguments intended to justify claims that social diversity in scientific research communities not only promotes justice but is good for knowledge. One such claim that I focus on The Everett or relative-state, or many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics has come under fire for inadequately dealing with the Born rule the formula for calculating quantum probabilities.
Numerous attempts This dissertation addresses the question: what is personal autonomy? It begins by examining the main theoretical accounts of autonomous agency currently on offer.
Although each of the available approaches faces significant The probability we want to compute is P J R ; that is, we want to know the probability of an event E j , given that the group reports R. Again, from the rule of the product, we have.
Substituting R for X in 10 and multiplying the top and bottom of the right-hand side by and rearranging, gives. Formula 11 presents the computation of the joint probability in terms of the individual reports, the dependency terms, and the "a priori" probability U J.
The P J R i can be derived from individual realism curves. U J is the probability of the event J based on whatever information is available without knowing R. The ratio measures the extent to which the event J influences the dependence among the estimates. However, the fact that estimators do not interact anonymity or make separate estimates, does not guarantee that their estimates are independent.
They could have read the same book the day before. The event related dependence is even more difficult to derive from readily available information- concerning the group. If there is reason' to believe that a particular. The simplicity of 12 is rather misleading; it depends on several strong assumptions.
Substituting for P J R on the right-hand side from 11 and the corresponding expression for and dividing top and bottom by we obtain. To complete this set of estimation formulae, if there are several alternatives in E , and it is desired to compute the group estimate for each alternative from the individual estimates for each alternative, 13 generalize to.
Perhaps the major difference is that 14 makes the "working" set of estimates the P E j R i which can be obtained directly from realism curves, whereas the corresponding formula derived from the theorem of Bayes involves as working estimates P R i E j which are not directly obtainable from realism curves.
Of course, in the strict sense,, the two formulae have to be equivalent, and the P R i E j are contained implicitly in the dependency terms. Without some technique for estimating the dependency terms separately from the estimates themselves, not much is gained by computing the group estimate with Historically, the "a priori" probabilities U J have posed a number of conceptual and data problems to the extent that several analysts, e.
Fisher [23], have preferred to eliminate them entirely and work only with the likelihood ratios-in the case of 14 , the ratios. This approach appears to be less defensible in the present case, where the a priori probabilities enter in a strong fashion, namely with the n -1 power.
For a rather restricted set of situations, a priori probabilities are fairly well defined, and data exist for specifying them. A good example is the case of weather forecasting, where climatological data form a good base for a priori probabilities. Similar' data exist for trend forecasting, where simple extrapolation models are a reasonable source for a priori probabilities. However, in many situations where expert judgment is desired, whatever prior information exists is in a miscellaneous form unsuited for computing probabilities.
In fact, it is in part for precisely this reason that experts are needed to "integrate" the miscellaneous information:. Some additional light can be thrown on the' role of a priori probabilities as well as the dependency terms by looking at the expected probabilistic score.
In the case of the theory-of-errors approach, itwas possible to derive the result that, independent of the objective probability distribution P , the expected probabilistic score of the group estimate is higher than the average expected score of individual members,of the group.
This result is not generally true for probabilistic aggregation. Since probabilistic aggregation depends upon knowing the a priori probabilities, a useful way to proceed is to define a net score obtained by subtracting the score that would be obtained by simply announcing the a priori probability.
The net score measures the extent to which the group estimate is better or worse than the a priori estimate. This appears to be a reasonable formulation, since presumably the group has' added nothing if its score is no better or is worse than what could be obtained without it.
Many formulations of probabilistic scores include a similar consideration when they are "normalized. In effect this is assuming that the a priori probabilities are' equal. If the average net score of the individual members is positive i. On the other hand, if the average net score of the individual members is negative, then the group will be n times as bad, still assuming the dependency terms small. The role of the event-related dependency term is somewhat more complex.
In general, it is desirable that be greater than one for those alternatives where the objective probability P is high. This favorable condition would be expected if the individuals are skilled estimators, but cannot be guaranteed on logical grounds alone. One of the more significant features of the probabilistic approach is that under favorable conditions the group response can be more accurate than any member of the group. For example, if the experts are fully realistic, agree completely on a given estimate, are independent, and finally, if it is assumed that the a priori probabilities are equal the classic case of complete prior ignorance , then formula 14 becomes.
In this respect, it seems fair to label the probabilistic approach "risky" as compared with the theory-of-errors approach. Under favorable conditions the former can produce group estimates that are much more accurate than the individual members of the group; under less favorable conditions, it can produce answers which are much worse than any member of the group.
A somewhat different way to develop a theory of group estimation is to postulate a set of desired characteristics for an aggregation method and determine the process or family of processes delimited by the postulates.
This approach has not been exploited up to now in Delphi research. However, if the aggregation process is defined formally as in the two preceding subsections, where questionnaire design is interpreted as defining the event space E, and panel selection; is reduced to, defining the response space R, then the axiomatic approach becomes feasible. Some of the more evident of these are:.
All of these conditions have a fairly strong intuitive appeal. However, intuition appears to be a poor guide here. The first four postulates are fulfilled by any of the usual averaging techniques. But A , which is perhaps the most apparently reasonable of them all, is not fulfilled by the probabilistic aggregation techniques discussed in the previous subsection. It was pointed out there that one of the more intriguing possibilities with probabilistic aggregation is that the group estimate may be higher or lower, depending on the interaction terms than any individual estimate.
It can be shown that there is no function that fulfills all five of the postulates; in fact, there is no function that fulfills D and E. The proof of this impossibility theorem is given elsewhere [24]; it will only be sketched here. The last is sometimes taken as a postulate, sometimes is derived from other assumptions.
If the individual members of a group are consistent, their probability judgments will fulfill these three conditions. It would appear reasonable to require that a group estimate also fulfill the conditions, consistently with the individual judgments. In addition, condition D , above, appears reasonable. This leads to the four postulates:. Pl-P3 have the consequence that G is both multiplicative and additive. The multiplicative property comes directly from P3, and the additive property-i.
This result may seem a little upsetting at first glance. It states that probability estimates arrived at by aggregating a set of individual probability estimates cannot be manipulated as if they were direct estimates of a probability. However, there are many ways to react to an impossibility theorem.
One is panic. There is the story that the logician Frege died of a heart attack shortly after he was notified by Bertrand Russell of the antinomy of the class of all classes that do not contain themselves. There was some such reaction after the more recent discovery of an impossibility theorem in the area of group preferences by Kenneth Arrow [25]. However, a quite different, and more pragmatic reaction is represented by the final disposition of the case of 0.
In the 17th century, there was long controversy on the issue whether 0 could be treated as a number. Strictly speaking there is an impossibility theorem to the effect that 0 cannot be a number.
As everyone knows, division by 0 can lead to contradictions. The resolution was a calm admonition, "Treat 0 as a number, but don't divide by it. In this spirit, formulation of group probability estimates has many desirable properties. It would be a pity to forbid them because of a mere impossibility theorem. Rather, the reasonable attitude would appear to be to use group probability estimates, but at the same time not to perform manipulations with the group aggregation function which can lead to inconsistencies.
The preceding has taken a rather narrow look at some of the basic aspects of group estimation. Many significant features, such as interaction via discussion or formal feedback, the role of additional information "fed-in" to the group, the differences between open-ended and prescribed questions, and the like, have not been considered. In addition, the role of a Delphi exercise within a broader decisionmaking process has not been assessed. What has been attempted, albeit not quite with the full neatness of a well-rounded formal theory, is the analysis of some of the basic building blocks of group estimation.
To summarize briefly: The outlines of a theory of estimation have been sketched, based on an objective definition of estimation skill-the realism curve or track record of an expert. Several approaches to methods of aggregation of individual reports into a group report have been discussed. At the moment, insufficient empirical data exist to answer several crucial questions concerning both individual and group estimation.
For groups, the degree of dependency of expert estimates, and the efficacy of various techniques such as anonymity and random selection of experts in reducing dependency have not been studied. By and large it appears that two broad attitudes can be taken toward the aggregation process.
One attitude, which can be labeled conservative, assumes that expert judgment is relatively erratic and plagued with random error. Under this assumption, the theory-of-errors approach looks most appealing. At least, it offers the comfort of the theorem that the error of the group will be less than the average error of the individuals.
The other attitude is that experts can be calibrated and, via training and computational assists, can attain a reasonable degree of realism. In this case it would be worthwhile to look for ways to obtain a priori probabilities and estimate the degree of dependency so that the more powerful probabilistic aggregation techniques can be used.
At the moment I am inclined to -take the conservative attitude because of the gaping holes in our knowledge of the estimation process.
On the other hand, the desirability of filling these gaps with extensive empirical investigations seems evident. This context could be included in the formalism, e. However, since W would be constant throughout, and ubiquitous in each probability expression, it is omitted for notational simplicity.
Introduction The term "Delphi" has been extended in recent years to cover a wide variety of types of group interaction. One normalizing procedure for always positive quantities such as dates, size of objects, probabilities, and the like, is the log error, defined as where T is the true answer and R i is the individual response. When the questionnaire method is selected, it can be administered to all company employees and can better facilitate isolating certain variables within the company overall.
These isolated variables will bring about improved desired outcomes, such as improved morale and higher productivity. One example of this may include certain external rewards, such as an increase in pay, or some type of monetary bonus. Some other examples might include: providing specialized training for an employee who feels they are lacking the ability and confidence to complete a function in a satisfactory manner, or acquiring a piece of equipment that would improve the efficiency of the employees production.
By isolating selected variables, a reward system can be more effectively designed, and can make it possible to determine whether or not the rewards implemented are effecting positive change.
The comprehensive reward system should include several different types of rewards so individuals at all levels of the organization with differing motivational drives can strive towards something they perceive as valuable while the organization is continuing to meet its goals and progress.
Utilizing the VIE formula will also allow leaders to set motivating objectives for employees e. The company will be better off, as more and more employees are motivated to achieve a higher level of performance. Additionally, the workplace can involve more participants than company and employee alone. Labor unions are sometimes considered participants, and can also play an important role in the workplace.
Many of such unions have looked into forms of expectancy and expectancy-value theory to build and understand their membership. Much like a company wants to learn what motivates their employees whether it be intrinsic or extrinsic factors , unions want to know what draws workers to join unions or to vote them out de-certify.
Over time, workers' ideas of unions change, based on different situations and adjustments in work environment. Unions can benefit from understanding what drives these changes, and can learn how to make adjustments to the workers perceptions and expectations of unions. If a worker perceives that joining a union will be of low cost to them low effort , then the worker might decide that they have the means to join.
Expectancy theory is an important tool in the field of management. Employee motivation is essential in making a team, section, company, or organization run effectively Steers et. Managers see motivation as an integral party of the performance equation. It is looked as a building block in the development of useful theories of effective management Steers et.
This means that the ideas we use to motivate most likely were written many years ago but we are still able to apply them to the workforce today. Based on these facts we can assume that there is a need for more, and new research. Over time thoughts and ideas within cultures change. What motivated people years ago may still apply, but with the change in time and mindset there may be better approaches to motivating this new generation of employees.
With the new face of the workplace, including globalization etc. Expectancy theory or VIE theory is one of the stronger theories to help explain motivation. It takes a conscious approach that a reasonable person would be able to apply.
A thought process is required to make the connections between performance, effort, and outcomes. One downside to this theory is that sometimes people misinterpret the situation and are not able to align the values properly to the outcome and this disturbs the validity of the process.
The Expectancy Theory argues that "people make decisions among alternative plans of behavior based on their perceptions [expectancies] of the degree to which a given behavior will lead to desired outcomes" Mathibe, In regards to the workplace, Werner , p.
The three components of Expectancy Theory are valence, instrumentality, and expectancy. All of these components need to be strong in order for the motivational force to be high. This means that if the expectancy of the individual is a zero, no matter how high the valence or instrumentality is, the score will be zero and the motivation will be gone.
This theory is a well-researched theory with numerous strengths and weaknesses and is applied in many organizations today. It also is different between people whereas other theories have a more general approach. Ashford, S. Out on a limb: The role of context and impression management in selling gender-equity issues. Administrative Science Quarterly, 43 , Baran Employee Motivation: Expectancy Theory.
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